Explore how Shakespeare develops Essay Example for Free

Explore how Shakespeare develops Essay Explore how Shakespeare develops the themes of duty, responsibility, love and loyalty in the Antony and Cleopatra. Throughout the play Antony and Cleopatra, Shakespeare develops and explores the themes of duty, responsibility, love and loyalty; from the very beginning of the play Shakespeare places these themes in conflict with one another and these conflicts are embodied in the most obvious sense through Antonys rejection of the Roman Empire and its ideals for the love of Cleopatra and a far more frivolous laid back life in Egypt. And in turn these differences in ideals are conveyed to the audience in the beginning of the first act when Philo and Demetrius come to the stage and discuss Antonys dotage over Cleopatra and how it Oerflows the measure. Philo laments at how Antony, once a powerful warrior, triumvir of the Roman Empire and a triple pillar of the world has given up all this power and become the bellows and the fan [that] cool a gipsys lust. The language used by Shakespeare at this point in the play helps to establish the antithetical nature of the Egyptians and the Romans; Philo describes Antony with powerful hyperboles and metaphors, evoking potent superhuman, heroic imagery as he speaks of Antonys eyes that glowed like plated mars, passionately and verbosely referring to his captains heart which was so powerful that it burst the buckles on his breast. The conviction with which Philo speaks brings the political and war faring nature of the Romans to the forefront and it becomes clear that the world Antony used to occupy is greatly at odds with the world he now inhabits with Cleopatra who is derogatorily described as having a tawny front (highlighting the Romans latent racial prejudices) and whose gipsys lust has reduced Antony to a strumpets fool. Philo never once uses positive words or language to describe the love between Antony and his queen; he constantly uses words that undermine the actual power she has a queen. The potency of his hatred for Cleopatra is conveyed eloquently through his use of language; Philo makes it obvious that in Rome intangible emotions such as love are undervalued in comparison to the far more corporeal physicality of great fights and the musters of war. It is very obvious that Philo does not view the relationship between Antony and Cleopatra as a great or Romantic but one of blind and foolish lust which has distracted Antony from his responsibilities and his duty. Furthermore, when Antony himself speaks of his love for Cleopatra the contrast between his former Roman ideals and his new Egyptian way of thinking become clearer, his first line to Cleopatra as he enters the stage is Theres beggary in the love that can be reckoned, implying that his love for her is immeasurable and takes precedence above all, the fact this is powerful and Romantic statement is the very first thing Antony says as he enters the stage magnifies the sentiment behind it. Further evidence of the greatness of Antonys love for Cleopatra is given when she chides him about the messenger from Rome who may be carrying a message from Caesar or his wife Fulvia, both of whom represent his responsibilities at home and both of whom he dismisses in his grand and dramatic statements that he provides her in response to her teasing (let Rome in Tiber melt and the wide arch of the ranged empire fall!), reassuring her that the two of them and their love for each other stand up peerless. It is Antonys use of imagery here that really encapsulates the depth of his love for Cleopatra, his acknowledgment of the greatness of Rome has a paradoxical quality to it as he confirms the greatness of its wide arch in the same breath and sentence as he confirms it.

Internal and External Analysis of Franchise

Internal and External Analysis of Franchise Penny Thomas, an Ivey graduate with the help of her daughter, who also is an Ivey graduate, decides to purchase a license to open a Marble Slab franchise in the Great Toronto Area. After paying her fees of $25,000 to the company, she starts thinking of her marketing plan for her grand opening that she has two weeks to hand to the Marble Slab head-quarters in Calgary . So she hired a marketing consultant (me) to help her. First, the corporate capabilities of the company had to be defined, financial capabilities, Marketing capabilities, Operational capabilities and the available human resources. After comprehensively studying the internal capabilities of the company, the external forces affecting the business are analyzed. The two external forces categories discussed in the report are the economical factors in the area, the social factors. Politically and technologically didnt have an effect on the business. After that, the direct and indirect competitions of Thomas were examined and t hen plans were made to compete with them. The direct competitions were Baskin Robins and Dairy Queen. The indirect competitions were McDonalds, Star Bucks, grocery and convenience stores. After carefully examining all these influential forces, a consumer analysis of the three best potential target markets were women, young adults and families was set up. And the target Market of Women was found most suitable for Thomass business because women are the primary caregivers, dominant shoppers in the community and they are more health conscious than males. Once the target market was chosen, a marketing 4Ps plan was constructed. Product wise, Marble Slab franchise had plenty of options to choose from, from milk shakes to ice cream cakes. But the primary product that Thomas should use while promoting the grand opening is the Childs size ice cream with one mixin because it is popular and it appeals to womens concerns because it is small and tasty. Then prices were determined for only caterin g, because Marble Slab is a franchise and it wasnt allowed for Thomas to change any of the prices. She only had power over the catering prices, so calculations of the breakeven points of the three different catering options were conducted and the best catering choice was the Sundae Bar option. After that, the location of the store was determined by studying each areas population and traffic. And the area that was chosen was the Toronto Annex area, although with a low population, it had a lot of foot traffic from students (almost half of students being female) and near a busy shopping street. Following the location of the business, different promotional options (billboards, radio, etc.) were examined and the most suitable, affordable combination of promotions for the grand opening were chosen. In conclusion, this marketing situation was studied comprehensively and the following results of the marketing report project that the grand opening is going to be successful along with the yea rs to come. The Marble Slab Creamery has been a well-known name in the market for ice cream since it first opened in Houston, Texas in 1983. Now Marble Slab has 400 branches worldwide in which, Penny Thomas had been blessed to be a part of when she purchased the right to open up a franchise in the Greater Toronto Area. Thomas is going to have a grand opening in May 2008 and needs a marketing plan to get approved by the headquarters in Calgary, Alberta about how she will handle the grand opening. The following marketing report breaks down the corporate abilities and the external analysis of Thomass company, also it discusses the consumer analysis and the competitive analysis. After deciding on the right target market, the report discusses Marble Slabs marketing plan which include product, price, promotion and placement. Corporate Capabilities: Marble Slab enjoys many financial abilities, being one of 400 franchises; Penny Thomas shares the same purchasing power of the franchisor. This is really helpful because Thomas would get a great deal of help from the Marble slab company by providing penny with connections that she can use to increase the store’s success and it would save her time now that she got all the connection and purchasing power she needs. Another ability and privilege that comes with a franchise is that the financial risk of any financial disaster is reduced and the consequences wouldnt be as severe because the store is backed up by a large well-established company that acts as a safety net for Penny Thomas’s store, which is helpful and the store can feel more secure. On the other hand, marketing budget was set at $10,000, which can cover all the costs of the grand opening adequately, which is good for the starting company because budget is tight for any new project and e fficiency is a key player in making the starting of this store follow more smoothly. Marketing capability wise, Penny Thomas enjoys Marble Slabs already existing prominent name, so the store isnt a new store that the target market must discover and learn about. Therefore, the franchisor made Thomas’s promotional task easier, and many existing Marble Slab customers will come to this location. As well, Marble Slab is already known for its high quality products that many customers around the 37 Ontario locations enjoy and crave. Thomas’s operational activities offer a great deal of mainly quality, freshly made ice-cream, with the option of letting the customer customize their purchases with a choice of toppings blended into their ice-cream flavour of choice, these choices include fruit pieces, candy and specialty nuts. These blends were made by a Marble Slab employee on a marble granite slab it also serves kosher, low-diet frozen yogurt, sundaes, floats, soft drinks and i ce-cream cakes. All these activate differentiate Marble slab from any competition giving them a competitive advantage that leads to more sales. Moving on to human resources, Thomas is blessed with the degree from Richard Ivey school of business, help of her daughter who also graduated from Ivey and valuable 25 years worth of experience working for the Hudson Bay company and she was familiar with her father’s past AW restaurant that he owned. This helps her greatly, because she knows what to expect and she is a very wise women in the field of business. She is also enjoying the expertise and network of the Marble Slab’s company, that helps her get started with the help of her network and make her avoid wrong decisions that were made in the past. Marble Slab’s employees must be well trained to handle all the machines and blending techniques so they can achieve the whole Marble slab’s experience that the customer expects. Employees are also highly hygienic be cause the work requires lots of hand work. External Analysis: The economy this year is going through a difficult recession in the United States. Which raises fears on how the Canadian economy will get affected later with the decline in Canadian exports and the commodity prices, only one wonders how the recession will hit Canada. But the consumer spending and the Canadian GDP are still growing. This instability raises fears for the business, maybe hurting it in the future because if the recession does hit, less consumers will be able to afford the quality of Marble Slab so sales will decline. Also because Marble Slab deals with dairy products, cocoa and sugar commodities, in which always fluctuate in price and never stable depending on supply and demand of the market. That may hurt or help the business because prices might fall to less than expected, increasing the marginal profit or increasing to more than expected, decreasing the marginal profit. Socially, Thomas’s business is expected to decline in winter months, bec ause of Canada’s long harsh winters, because less people get a craving for good ice cream in the winter months than in the summer. Ice cream is also became a popular snack within the people, with the average Canadian consuming 8.4 litters annually in 2007. Also, the companys good quality products give the store an advantage of having people to like to show off in a way Marble Slab’s ice cream while they are eating it with their friends. Also, there is growing health a trend growing that pushes people to look for healthier ways to snack such as frozen yogurt, in which Marble Slab’s serves their customers. Competitive Analysis: Marble Slabs direct competitions in the market are Baskin Robins and Dairy Queen. Baskin Robins always had a strong presence in the Canadian Market. They have their stores present in good locations with high traffic for customers convenience. They serve 31 original high quality flavours, with the same price range as Marble Slab. Baskin Robins also enjoys a fortune of resources and promotional power. Though Baskin Robins has all these features, they dont give their customers the option of customizing their purchase like Marble Slab does. Marble Slab can compete with them by keeping the prices in the same range while emphasizing to the target market the option for customers to customize their purchases. This way Marble Slab would have a competitive advantage over Baskin Robins. Baskin might respond to this by introducing the same option we offer or decreasing their prices. The other direct competition to Marble Slab is the world-wide restaurant of Dairy Queen, whi ch served the same category of products with the option of customized purchase to their customer as marble slab does, but Dairy queen also sells hot food items such as hotdogs, burgers and fries. On top of that, they targeted the family markets because they also offer friendly-kid options. Dairy Queen is present in high traffic areas such as malls. Marble Slap therefore, has to try to avoid competing with Dairy Queen by targeting a market other than families, and at the same time focus on the quality of Marble Slabs products and show customers that they may be paying more but the quality they are gaining is much more than Dairy Queen. Dairy Queen might respond to this by increasing the quality of their products and focusing on the hot foods that they serve and promote it more to attract more customers. For competitive positioning map (see Exhibit #1). In addition to Marble Slabs direct competition, Marble Slab has three indirect competition; McDonalds, Starbucks and Grocers and convenience stores. McDonalds is the worlds largest fast food chain restaurant. Other than hot foods, they offer soft-serve dessert items such as ice cream, milk shakes and the Mcflurry. McDonalds is present in high traffic areas and offers a drive thru for customers in a hurry. They have cheap prices that anyone can afford in Canada, but also serve low quality products. McDonalds may seem like tough competition but it is not because it serves limited options for its customers. Marble Slab should focus on their quality and the unique Marble Slab way of making their products and making it more accessible for customers by adding a drive thru option. McDonalds wouldnt respond because their main goals arent about frozen desserts, they care more about their hot foods. A second indirect competition to Marble Slab is Starbucks, which is a premium retailer of coffe e dessert and fresh food items. Starbucks gives its customer a cozy atmosphere and wireless internet. Like Marble Slab, it offers high quality products for premium prices. Marble Slab already serves better quality choices and options of ice cream which gives a competitive advantage to Marble Slab. Marble Slab can also compete with Starbucks by giving the same cozy atmosphere in the restaurant but also suitable for younger children. Starbucks will respond to this by introducing new drinks which will appeal to children. The third indirect competition is the mass produce ice cream companies that distribute to grocers and convenience stores. These products appeal to a lot of people because they vary in prices and they are really accessible for customers because they are sold in grocery or convenience stores. Problem with this is that they are not always fresh and full of ingredients that keep the product fresh which can be harmful to the customer. Marble Slab can compete with this by se lling their mixes and their ice creams at a number of grocery and convenience stores in the future. For competitive positioning map(see Exhibit #1). Consumer Analysis There are three target market options that will probably appeal to Marble Slab, families, young adults and women. Families with children under 15 years of age are the best potential customers. Children represent the bottom of the population pyramid, which means that they are more than any other target market. Families eat ice creams when they go out with their children and the children ask their parents to buy them ice cream to satisfy their sweet tooth. Families are willing to buy mostly on weekends at locations near parks while taking the kids out, and inside malls while shopping. The second target market are young adults that age from 15-24 years of age who have some or full independence, and can spend their disposable income on social interactions. Young adults find ice cream a popular after a long day at work or at school or just simply to chill out. Young adults are influenced to buy from Marbles by seeing famous people or their idles eat Marble slabs Ice crea m. Young Adults would purchase an ice cream from shopping centres while they are shopping or beside a high school or a college when they are on break or after class. As good as the young adults target market sounds, it is very competitive because there is already a lot of ice cream outlets targeting this group. Which leads to the last target market†¦ Women, which are the best target Market for Thomass Marble Slab creamery. Because women are the caregivers and dominant grocery shoppers in our society, they also do more shopping than men in general, and they are more health conscious, which is good for the stores low-fat snacks. Women are influenced to purchase from Marble Slab when seeing skinny models satisfying their taste buds by enjoying their tasty Marble Slab snack, while still keeping their bodies fit. Women are everywhere, they can purchase from shopping malls, streets, gyms, parks and colleges at any time of the day, any day of the week, but mostly weekends. And women s pend alot of time at malls so Marble Slab would be a great snack for them. 4Ps {Product} Marble Slab is a franchise that differentiates itself from other ice-cream outlets because it serves their customers high quality, top of the line products. With the option of customizing their purchases by choosing different flavour blends and mixins which included, fruit pieces, candies and specialty nuts. Mixins were blended by employees on a marble granite slab. Also Marble Slab offers Kosher for the Jewish customers and a wide variety of different milkshakes, frozen yogurt, sundaes, milkshakes, floats, ice cream cakes, soft drinks and newly added fat-free frozen yogurt. The product that Thomas should focus and promote the most is Childs size ice cream because it is fairly popular and it appeals to her target market which is women, because it is a small portion with less calories and very tasty. {Price} Marble Slab is a franchise; therefore it doesnt have any power of changing of prices.(For unit contributions of products see exhibit 3) It requires Thomas to sell 7764 units of Childs size ice cream to break even and start making a profit. (see exhibit 2). Childs size ice cream is the product that will be promoted with the promotion of the grand opening, because it appeals to womens needs; its small and tasty. But the company gave Thomas the flexibility of prices in catering. Thomas should choose the Sundae bar catering option because it gets the most profit selling less units to break even than the other options. Sundae Bar needs 57 customers to breakeven the costs while the Ice Cream social needs 59 customers to break even and start making a profit.(see exhibit 4) The portable Slab option is unaffordable because there is only $685 left from the $10,000 budget that was set for the promotion, and $2,500 are needed for additional equipment.(exhibit 5) Thomas should keep her pr ice at the average which is $6.95 per person because price wars may lead to bankruptcy and because she is located in a busy area beside a university and a shopping street. Therefore, will get a lot of catering offers because it is where a lot of students and women who are either shopping or hanging around or at university would probably come and party on birthdays and other occasions. {Placement} Thomas should open her Marble Slab restaurant in the Toronto Annex Area. Although it has a smaller population of any of the four options, The Annex area has a lot of traffic from the university that is there and it is very close to Bloor Street, which is a major shopping street. This location is the most appropriate for the Creamery because Thomass target market is women. And women are the primary shoppers in society and the university probably has a high percentage of females attending it. So this location is located in the heart of where many women walk for either shopping or going to class. The location will also help have a more successful grand opening because it is exposed to people who go thru that busy area. {Promotion}To effectively promote the new store for the grand opening, Thomas should spend $2,120 on two street level media unit, in the Toronto Annex area , because the street media would be exposed to the people shopping and in university, showing them that a light, low fat snack from Marble Slab would be delicious while shopping or after class. In addition, Thomas should purchase two 10Ãâ€"20 feet billboards costing $2950 that would be located in high traffic roads. These billboards and street media should show a visual image of the creaminess, lightness and taste of a super premium Ice cream, preferably a childs size ice cream with one mixin, because it is small in calories and it would be best to promote. The advertisement will have a beautiful athlete physically-fit model eating from it. That way it will appeal to the target markets taste buds and show that you can stay healthy and fit while still eating delicious food. Thomas should also spend $645 on a daytime radio commercial for 30 seconds and $650 on a radio commercial at breakfast time. Thomas should purchase those times because morning time is the most time that people tune in to listen to the radio while they are eating breakfast or driving to work. And the other commercia l at daytime is effective, because it is when most people are awake and thinking of things to eat to get on with their day. Both types of promotion should emphasize the good quality, freshness and low fat in Marble Slabs products. All this adds up to $9315, which is less than the budget of $10,000 with an excess of $685. (See Exhibit 5) Confidently, this report will satisfy Penny Thomass wants and needs. This report discussed in detail the corporate capabilities, consumer analysis, competition analysis and the external analysis of the franchise. And from studying all these factors, the most suitable product, location, price and promotion were chosen for the grand opening of this franchise within the budget of $10,000. In conclusion, this marketing plan was designed to boost the businesss success from the start of the grand opening and for the many years to come. Surely, the Marble Slabs headquarters will approve of this report and would be anxious to see the results when the grand opening is on May 2008.

The Odyssey - A Creton Lie :: essays research papers fc

Gentle waves lap against the Ithacian shore line as Odysseus has finally reached his native homeland. Rumors of the great turmoil that has rocked Odysseus' home land and house has reached him abroad. After hearing the news, he decides to don a beggar's disguise and so forth begins the great test. When the disguised Odysseus in Homer's great epic poem, The Odyssey, converses with her wife Penelope in Book nineteen, he tests her loyalty to her husband' s honor and her love of her missing husband.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Odysseus disguised as a beggar is the basis for the lies that are going to be told to Penelope in this passage by him. In my opinion, this is the main lie that is used as the building block for many other lies to be told. Odysseus is being deceitful by disguising himself as a beggar for specific reasons. His reasons are to find out what has been going on in Ithaca in his twenty years' absence. He wants to find out his wife's loyalty to him as the husband and the authority figure, and her love to her husband. If she did not still love him, he might think twice about revealing his identity to his wife and to the island of Ithaca. He wants to get a feeling of how Penelope feels towards him before he reveals himself to her.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚     Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The beggar assures Penelope that he has really spent some time with her husband in Amnisus because there was a terrible storm and, 'Then on the thirteenth day the wind died down and they set sail for Troy (Homer 397, 19.233-234).'; There are two statements that reassure Penelope that the beggar does know Odysseus. 'So I took Odysseus back to my own house, gave him a hero's welcome, treated him in style....';(Homer 396, 19.222-223) and 'A dozen days they stayed with me there.... (Homer 397, 19.228-229).'; By giving Penelope this information about her husband, it gives her hope that he is still alive and on his way home.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Now comes the part where he puts Penelope to the test. By sharing this information with her about her husband he comes to understand her feelings for him. Penelope has not only been loyal to Odysseus as her husband, but also as the authority figure. She has demonstrated her loyalty by being true to him for twenty years in his absence and has not remarried.

Dream Interpretation Essays -- essays research papers fc

It Was Only a Dream   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  She awakens in the night, the visions from her mind still vivid. The dream was amazingly realistic. A long hallway stretched before her. Several doors lined the hallway, each with a padlock. A ring full of keys weighed heavily in her hand. What did it all mean? Did this hallway symbolize her life? The doors could have meant many things, possibly the choices she faces daily. As she drifts back to sleep, thoughts of the dream cloud her mind. She hopes to remember it in the morning and search for answers.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The description of this woman could match any number of people. Years of research have produced findings that everyone dreams. While not everyone may remember his or her dreams, sleep studies have shown that each person does dream as he or she progresses through the stages of sleep. Whether or not these dreams contain any significant meaning for the dreamer is a source of arguments today, as well as in years past. An in depth study of dream interpretation will reveal the benefits of exploring the meanings behind dreams. To begin this study, it is helpful to first understand the different aspects of sleep. In Atkinson’s Introduction to Psychology book, she states that sleep contains five stages, including â€Å"four depths of sleep and a fifth stage, known as rapid eye movement (REM)† (193). In various sleep studies, most adults go through all stages during their normal sleeping hours. While they drift from one stage of sleep to another, activity in the brain increases and decreases. However, this study is interested mostly in the fifth stage, REM sleep. Individuals incur a great amount of details during the course of any given day, including dates, places, times and people. â€Å"During REM sleep, the brain creates a story line that allows this large volume of events to be stored and remembered in a coherent form, albeit at an unconscious level† (Chopra 107). REM occurs at different times throughout an individual’s time asleep, and consumes from thirty minutes up to two h ours of an individuals non-waking moments. Every individual is subject to REM sleep, and some suffer from REM Sleep Disorder. The disorder involves a severe attachment to a person’s dreams. Dotto reports that while sufferers consist mostly of men over fifty years of age, it can affect anyone. She also states that res... ... Trish and Rob MacGregor present a comprehensive guide on how to incubate, recall and interpret dreams. Additionally, this book provides a glossary of symbols and common dream topics and themes. Maguire, Jack. Night and Day. New York: Roundtable Press, 1989. Author Jack Maguire   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Presents a complete program concerning how to use dreams to reach designated goals   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  and results. Moss, Robert. Conscious Dreaming. New York: Crown Trade Paperbacks, 1996. The author reveals a nine-step plan to understanding dreams, including ways to shape the dreamer’s future. He also details the use of a dream journal to tap into unknown resources. Parker, Julia. Derek. Complete Book of Dreams. New York: Dorling Kindersly Publishing, 1995. As the title describes, this book covers a broad spectrum of dream themes, including sample dreams. It also contains a dictionary of common dream symbols and their meanings. Your Life. â€Å"Are Dreams Trying To Tell Us Something?† USA Today Magazine. 18 Oct 1999. http://search.inspire-indiana.net:8008/WebZ/Fetch This magazine article gives a quick, surface-level guide to dream interpretation.

Fractals and the Cantor Set :: Fractal Cantor Essays

Fractals and the Cantor Set Fractals are remarkable designs noted for their infinite self-similarity. This means that small parts of the fractal contain all of the information of the entire fractal, no matter how small the viewing window on the fractal is. This contrasts for example, with most functions, which tend to look like straight lines when examined closely. The Cantor Set is an intriguing example of a fractal. The Cantor set is formed by removing the middle third of a line segment. Then the middle third of the new line segments are removed. This is repeated an infinite number of times. In the end, we are left with a set of scattered points. These points have some very curious properties. First, there are an infinite number of them. In fact, there are so many points that no matter what list we create or what rule we apply, not all of the points will appear, even if our list is infinite. In other words, the set belongs to aleph-one. This is demonstrated through diagonalization. Here’s how—first one endpoint of the original line segment is labeled zero. The other endpoint becomes one. All the points in between are assigned fractional values. We can calculate more easily if we assign the values in tertiary, the base-three system. Unlike the common decimal system, the natural numbers are labeled 1, 2, 10, 11, 12, 20, 21, 22, 100, and so forth. Notice that the places of the digits represent the powers of three rather than the powers of ten. The â€Å"decimal places† represent 1/3, 1/9, 1/27, and so forth. The first removal takes out all points between .1 and .2. The second removal takes out all points between .01 and .02 as well as the values from .21 and .22. By continuing these specifications, all numbers that contain a â€Å"1† are removed, (except numbers ending in a one, such as .220021) and number containing merely twos and zeros are kept. The numbers ending in 1 are re-written by replacing the final 1 with 02222222222222†¦. because this is equal to 1 in tertiary. Suppose that we could somehow count all Cantor Set elements in one list. Then we could write out that list in order, one above the other. However, if we took the first decimal of the

Tddc17 – Lab 2 Search

TDDC17 - ­? Lab 3 Part 2 Q5 P (Meltdown) = 0,02578 P(Meltdown | Ica weather) = 0. 03472 b)   Suppose that both warning sensors indicate failure. What is the risk of a meltdown in that case? Compare this result with the risk of a melt- ­? down when there is an actual pump failure and water leak. What is the difference? The answers must be expressed as conditional probabilities of the observed variables, P(Meltdown|†¦ ). P(Meltdown | PumpFailureWarning, WaterLeakWarning) = 0,14535 P (Meltdown | PumpFailure, WaterLeak) = 0,2 c)   The conditional robabilities for the stochastic variables are often estimated by repeated experiments or observations. Why is it sometimes very difficult to get accurate numbers for these? What conditional probabilites in the model of the plant do you think are difficult or impossible to estimate? a) What is the risk of melt- ­? down in the power plant during a day if no observations have been made? What if there is icy weather? It is hard to ful ly understand all possible factors that can effect or trigger an event and how they interact with each other.Observations are always a description of the past and is not always accurate in forecasting the future. E. g. Icy weather is not a thing you can measure and span over a wide range of weather conditions including combinations of precipitation, wind and temperature. d)   Assume that the â€Å"IcyWeather† variable is changed to a more accurate â€Å"Temperature† variable instead (don't change your model). What are the different alternatives for the domain of this variable? What will happen with the robability distribution of P(WaterLeak | Temperature) in each alternative? The domain decreases in size of possible states as for example precipitation and wind is no longer a part of the estimations. The temperature will be represented as an absolute number or intervals, instead of just true or false. Resulting in a lot more defining of the probabilities of the child nodes with aspect to each value/interval of temperature. Q6 a) What does a probability table in a Bayesian network represent?The probability table shows the probability for all states of the node given the states of the parent nodes. b)   What is a joint probability distribution? Using the chain rule on the structure of the Bayesian network to rewrite the joint distribution as a product of P(child|parent) expressions, calculate manually the particular entry in the joint distribution of P(Meltdown=F, PumpFailureWarning=F, PumpFailure=F, WaterLeakWaring=F, WaterLeak=F, IcyWeather=F). Is this a common state for the nuclear plant to be in? Kedjeregeln ger foljanade:P(alla ar falska) = P(ICYWEATHER) * P(PUMPFAILURE) * P(PW | PUMPFAILURE) * P(MELTDOWN| PUMPFAILURE, WL) * P(WL | ICYWEATHER) * P(WATERLEAKW | WL) = 0,95 * 0,9 * 0,95 * 1 * 0,9 * 0,95 = 0,69 Ja, detta ar ett vanligt tillstand. c)   What is the probability of a meltdown if you know that there is both a water leak and a pump failure? Would knowing the state of any other variable matter? Explain your reasoning! P(Meltdown | PumpFailure, WaterLeak ) = 0,8. No other variables matter. When all the parents values are observed they alone determine the child value. ) Calculate manually the probability of a meltdown when you happen to know that PumpFailureWarning=F, WaterLeak=F, WaterLeakWarning=F and IcyWeather=F but you are not really sure about a pump failure. P(Meltdown = T | PUMPFAILURE osaker, resten falska )= P(ICYWEATHER) * P(WL | ICYWEATHER) * P(WATERLEAKW | WATERLEAK)* [P(PUMPFAILURE=T) * P(PW | PUMPFAILURE=T) * P(MELTDOWN=T | PUMPFAILURE=T,WL) + P(PUMPFAILURE=F) * P(PW | PUMPFAILURE=F) * P(MELTDOWN=T | PUMPFAILURE=F,WL)] = 0,95 * 0,9 * 0,95 * (0,1 * 0,1 * 0,16 + 0,9 * 0,95 * 0,01) = 0,008 (1)P(MELTDOWN=F | PUMPFAILURE osaker, resten falska)=P(ICYWEATHER) * P(WL | ICYWEATHER) * P(WATERLEAKW | WL)* [P(PUMPFAILURE=T) * P(PW | PUMPFAILURE=T) * P(MELTDOWN=F | PUMPFAILURE=T,WL) @+ P(PUMPFAILURE=F) * P(PW | PUMPFAILURE=F) * P(MELTDOWN=F | PUMPFAILURE=F,WL)] = 0,95 * 0,9 * 0,95 * (0,1 * 0,1 * 0,84 + 0,9 * 0,95 * 0,99) =0,694 (2) (1) och (2) =; alfa = 1 / (0,008 + 0,69) = 1,42 0,008 * 1,42 = 0,012 0,694 * 1,42 = 0,988 Part 3 During the lunch break, the owner tries to show off for his employees by demonstrating the many features of his car stereo. To everyone's disappointment, it doesn't work. How did the owner's chances of urviving the day change after this observation? Without knowing whether the radio is working or not, the probability of him surviving is 0,99001. If the radio is not working the probability is 0,98116. How   does the bicycle change the owner's chances of survival? With the bicycle the probability of surviving is 0. 99505. Small increase. It   is possible to model any function in propositional logic with Bayesian Networks. What does this fact say about the complexity of exact inference in Bayesian Networks? What alternatives are there to exact inference? Yes but i t might be complex and you might sometimes have to add new nodes.For example if you want to model an OR-relationship you have to add a new node with truthtable probabilities that match. An alternative to exat inference is probabilistic indifference. Things might not always be true or false with a predefined probability. With probabilistic inference yuou can reuse a full joint distribution as the â€Å"knowledge base† Part 4 Changes in graph Mr. H-S sleeping ( T = 0. 3, F = 0. 7) Mr HS reacts in a competent way: WaterleakWarn. Pumpfailurewarning Mr HS sleeping T T T T F F F F T T F F T T F F T F T F T F T F T 0. 0 0. 8 0. 0 0. 7 0. 0 0. 7 0. 0 0. 0 P(Survives | Meltdown, Mr HS reacts) incresing 9% (0. 9) The   owner had an idea that instead of employing a safety person, to replace the pump with a better one. Is it possible, in your model, to compensate for the lack of Mr H. S. ‘s expertise with a better pump? Yes, by increasing the probability of the pump not failing w ith 0. 05. The chance of survival increases to 0. 99713 Mr   H. S. fell asleep on one of the plant's couches. When he wakes up he hears someone scream: â€Å"There is one or more warning signals beeping in your control room! â€Å". Mr H. S. realizes that he does not have time to fix the error before it is to late (we can assume that he wasn't in the control room at ll). What is the chance of survival for Mr H. S. if he has a car with the same properties as the owner? (notice that this question involves a disjunction which can not be answered by querying the network as is) Clarification:Maybe something could be added to or modified in the network. By adding a new node called warning, which represents the OR-relationship of WaterLeakWarning and PumpFailureWarning, i. e. Warning is true if WaterLeakWarning is true or if PumpFailureWarning is true or if They are both true and is false if they are both false. P(survives) = 0. 98897 if Warning is observed true. What   unrealistic a ssumptions o you make when creating a Bayesian Network model of a person? That a persons actions are predictable and that he never gains more experience as time passes, which would effect the probabilities of his actions. Describe how you would model a more dynamic world where for example the â€Å"IcyWeather† is more likely to be true the next day if it was true the day before. You only have to consider a limited sequence of days. By adding nodes representing the weather of the previous days. E. g. one node representing the day before, one bubble representing the day before that and so on†¦ Tommy Oldeback, tomol475 Emma Ljungberg, emmlj959

Andrew Carnegie A Captain Of Industry

Many industrialists in the gilded age were on the border line between a robber baron or a captain of industry. Of these industrialists was an extremely success useful business man Andrew Carnegie. Andrew could be argued on both sides of the matter. Carnegie shaped his steel production business to #1 in the world, he sold it a ND used the money towards many charity organizations.I believe that Andrew Carnegie e was a captain of industry because he dedicated his life to helping society with public activities and donated more than 100 million dollars to schools, libraries, an d through several other donations. He not only shaped industrialization but the United s tastes. People believe that Andrew Carnegie was a robber baron because he was untrustworthy, selfish, and left workers in lethal work habitats with low wages .Andrew put his employees in harmful work environments with less than safe equipment NT. Injuries occurred often in Carnegie;s business from exploding iron, flames, and sl ang. It was hard for the workers to be alert and ready with only a couple hours of sleep and a work SSH fit of twelve. Along with the means unsafe work conditions they had to live off low pay. Carnegie also betrayed one of his closest business friends Henry Fricke by three tatting him to sell his stock in the steel business for cheap.Many believe that Andrew Carnegie betrayed not only his workers but his friends. Although many will strongly critic Andrew Carnegie as a Robber Baron see h as one of the greatest captains Of industry. Carnegie used his â€Å"last days† serve Eng others by building libraries, schools, and giving donations. â€Å"Carnegie donated approve imitate 5$ million to the new York public library so it could open several branches†. And even opened up his own university so he could share his knowledge and success the rough future business owners.Carnegie put his men through hell and back so they c loud have the #1 steel business in the world that would soon sell for more than 200 mill Andrew Carnegie did what he had to do so that he could be successful in the gilded age and lose himself in the service of others. Carnegie changed his life for the beet err in his later years. He wrote books on being socially responsible for the wealthy and enjoyed meeting with other professionals from different fields. Carnegie may have lo deed like just another snotty,cocky business owner but really wanted to help others.An drew Carnegie was a captain of industry but also a shaped the industrialization by b Ewing an example of smart work and effective actions. In conclusion, Andrew Carnegie was a brilliant business man who ended with the best steel plant in the world. Although he treated his employees poorly he did it to be successful which worked. Carnegie spent the money from his steel production n to help others be successful too. Andrew Carnegie was captain Of industry and made a difference in peoples lives for the better.